Well, my dark horse pick to win the tournament, Croatia, is out of Euro 2008. Turkey seems charmed even if they're practically throwing the equipment guy on in the next match.
That leaves my sentimental pick, Spain, but I have absolutely no confidence in their intestinal fortitude. Skill they have in spades, but I doubt any other top soccer country has as fragile a psyche. History and tradition are solidly against them. Sentimentality isn't common sense, though, and I'm sticking with Spain to the bitter end (and it's always bitter and sour, like over-pickled gazpacho).
David Beckham, by the way, is also pulling for Spain. He has friends on the squad. His support didn't really help the Lakers versus the Celtics, though.