I'm writing my PE column on Mexico and Sven Goran Eriksson, the now under-fire Mexico head coach.
Just had some thoughts I'm writing on here that may or may not make it into the piece.
First, last week I wrote about how Mexico might not qualify but odds are against it happening. Mexico has a plus four and Jamaica a minus three and barring two lopsided routs Mexico could lose and still get through.
Of course, the fact that Mexico has not qualified yet is enough for concern and FMF people have the right to be upset, which is one of the points of my column.
Anyway, here's a possible scenario that could see Jamaica through and Mexico out. If Honduras beats Mexico 3-0 and Jamaica routs Canada 5-0, Jamaica and Honduras go through.
How likely is that? Not very likely, according to history. Mexico has lost a World Cup qualifier by three or more goals at least once, but that was way back in 1973. They've lost by a pair of goals a few times since but not by three or more.
However, Mexico has not fared well in Honduras in their last two trips there. In 2001, Mexico lost 3-1 and in 1996 they lost 2-1. In 1993, though, Mexico won by 4-0 down in Tegucigalpa.
A Honduras victory is possible especially since Honduras was 20 minutes away from achieving as much in Azteca. But I guess it depends mostly on which Mexico team shows up, and that will depend on how Eriksson prepares for the match.
Is it possible Eriksson doesn't survive the year? Yeah, sure but I think Mexico would have crash out of qualifying for that to happen. To me, Mexico will probably get a draw down in Honduras and qualify for the Hexagonal. If that happens, the pressure will remain on high - could we call that an orange threat level? - for the winter and until the Hex begins.